March 2011

Apple has a track record of doing a mid-cycle refresh to their phones: the iPhone 3G, example, was bumped to become the 3GS with the addition of faster hardware. Something tells me the next iPhone refresh, however, may be more comprehensive than usual. Here’s why:

The Antenna: That exposed antenna cost Apple some brand credibility, which isn’t something that Apple cedes lightly, and the free bumper program and PR effort cost them millions. Finally, the antenna doesn’t seem to deliver any functional improvements – iPhone 4 reception on average doesn’t appear to be any better or worse than any of its internally-antenna’d competitors. Note that Mark Papermaster fell on his sword and left Apple in the wake of antennagate – that’s pretty telling for a company that values long-tenured executives. I expect Apple would be happy to have the antenna back inside the case sooner rather than later.

The Glass Back: The iPhone 4 has a glass back that is prone to shattering. With the antenna on the outside, it doesn’t offers any functional improvement over a metal back, and arguably doesn’t offer any more visual appeal than aluminum or plastic alternatives. Rumours are heavy that iPhone 5 will be back to metal. I would argue that it won’t be aluminum as many articles suggest, but rather the product of one of Apple’s more mysterious acquisitions, LiquidMetal. Remember them? They make weird alloys that allow for very sophisticated designs.

The Processor: The iPhone 4 features an Apple A8 single-core processor. With Apple’s ongoing push into gaming, that chip doesn’t buy the iPhone a lot of head room for future developments. I think the iPad 2 points the way here – rumours abound already that iPhone 5 is going to get the dual-core chip – the A5. Apple’s on a roll with gaming, and I think they’ll act to maintain that momentum. Apple must also be feeling some competitive pressure from Android phones that offer dual core performance and multitasking today – an area that Apple has consistently fallen down in.

4G Networks and Verizon LTE: Apple’s Jobs apparently likes the cut of Verizon’s LTE jib. For those who don’t know, LTE is a “4G” or next-generation high-speed network technology. Since the launch of the iPhone 4 on Verizon, Verizon’s download speeds have been shown to be consistently slower than those of AT&T – a fact that would have been know to Apple prior to the launch. That’s not a great experience for Apple’s Verizon customers today. But – Verizon’s the LTE champ in North America, and there’s already lots of speculation that Apple is planning for an LTE iPhone. Or, Apple may welcome Sprint into the iPhone fold with a 4G iPhone 5 (4G is a high-speed alternative to LTE) as well as make AT&T’s 4G network available to iPhone owners. The bottom line is that there’s a lot going on with high-speed wireless technology, all of which is bypassing Apple’s current phones and customers.

So – sum it all up and you’ve got a tarnished brand (the antenna), a somewhat dubious design feature (the glass back), a processor that’s going to run out of steam (A8), and new drool worthy networks that Apple can’t touch (LTE and 4G). The processor and networks are going to quickly become tablestakes in my view, and the antenna and backing changes would return Apple to their excellent user-focused design tradition. So – I call iPhone 5 for this fall.

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